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Wells Fargo expects two rate cuts in the second half of 2024
  + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWells Fargo expects two rate cuts in the second half of 2024Paul Christopher, global head of market strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Stephanie Roth, chief investment economist at Wolfe Research, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to share their expectations from the Federal Reserve on rate cuts.
Persons: Paul Christopher, Stephanie Roth, Steve Liesman Organizations: Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Wolfe Research, Federal Locations: Wells Fargo
Brendan McDermid | ReutersBlackRock estimates that the world's green energy transition will require $4 trillion annually by the mid-2030s, calling for more public-private partnerships, especially in Asia-Pacific. The forecast comes from BlackRock's latest "Investment Institute Transition Scenario," which analyzes how the low-carbon transition is most likely to play out and its potential impact on portfolios. The $4 trillion figure is double previous expectations of $2 trillion annually, and will require increases in both public and private sector capital, according to Michael Dennis, head of APAC Alternatives Strategy & Capital Markets at BlackRock. Last year, $1.8 trillion was invested into projects related to the energy transition, up from $33 billion in 2004 with about $19 trillion invested to date, according to data compiled by BlackRock. "However, while the investment has grown, there's still an $18 trillion gap to get to where we need to by 2030," he added.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Michael Dennis, Dennis, there's Organizations: Reuters BlackRock, Investment, Capital Markets, BlackRock Locations: BlackRock, New York City, Asia, U.S
Conflict in the Middle East escalated over the weekend as Iran launched drones and missiles at Israel, and traders braced for a response. Investors have already been on edge as of late amid climbing oil prices and recent economic data that shows inflation is remaining sticky. Rockier times could be ahead, too, noted Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Tax-loss harvesting involves selling losers in your taxable account and using these losses to offset realized gains within your portfolio. Extending duration involves adding exposure to bonds with greater price sensitivity to changes in rates.
Persons: Paul Christopher, Christopher, rebalancing, Gargi Pal Chaudhuri Organizations: Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Information Technology, Communications Services, BlackRock, Treasury Bond ETF Locations: Fresh, Iran, Israel, Wells Fargo, BlackRock
Eaton and DuPont are both unconventional AI plays, as the data center market grows to meet the demands of the generative AI boom. Wells Fargo Investment Institute last month described rising data center demand as having positive "trickle-down effects" on the industrial sector. WFII wrote that spending from Big Tech firms into data centers, in particular, creates "meaningful downstream impacts" for industrial companies. Amazon Web Services is reportedly investing nearly $150 billion in data centers within the next 15 years to support AI efforts. During a Barclays investor conference in February, CFO Lori Koch said DuPont's data center and AI exposure will help boost the company's electronics business.
Persons: Eaton, Jensen Huang, Huang, chipmaker, Sameer Samana, WFII, Jim Cramer, Eaton's, DuPont, Lori Koch, Koch, Jim Cramer's Organizations: The, DuPont, Club, Nvidia, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, CNBC, Big Tech, , Microsoft, Services, McKinsey, workloads, Electrical, Management, Barclays, Wall Street, RBC Capital Markets, Eaton, RBC, U.S, De Nemours, DuPont's Electronics, Semiconductor Technologies, DuPont's Semiconductor Technologies, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Wells Fargo, U.S, Eaton, China
Hedge funds are dumping stocks at the fastest pace in three months as what's often called " the smart money " stepped up bearish wagers against equities amid the recent pullback. The professionals sold global stocks on a net basis for a second straight week last week, driven almost entirely by short sales, according to Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage data. It marked the biggest selling week for hedge funds since mid-January, the data showed. Its hedge fund clients sold stocks for a fifth consecutive week last week, exiting shares across small-, mid- and large-cap companies. The S & P 500 declined nearly 1%, its biggest weekly loss since early January, although the equity benchmark is still only 1.7% below its record high.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Bahnsen, Goldman, Jean Boivin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of, Dow, Bahnsen Group, P Retail, Traders, Fed, BlackRock Investment Institute Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailToday's market moves were largely due to geopolitical tensions, says Wells Fargo's Scott WrenScott Wren, Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global equity strategist, and Adam Crisafulli, Vital Knowledge founder, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: Wells Fargo's Scott Wren Scott Wren, Adam Crisafulli Organizations: Fargo Investment Institute, Vital Knowledge Locations: Fargo
Watch CNBC's full interview with Scott Wren and Adam Crisafulli
  + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Scott Wren and Adam CrisafulliScott Wren, Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global equity strategist, and Adam Crisafulli, Vital Knowledge founder, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: Scott Wren, Adam Crisafulli Scott Wren, Adam Crisafulli Organizations: Fargo Investment Institute, Vital Knowledge Locations: Fargo
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBroader markets will likely pause as long rates tick up, says Wells Fargo's Sameer SamanaSameer Samana, Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global market strategist, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss where it is time to get more defensive, if there's risk built into earnings right now, and more.
Persons: Wells, Sameer Samana Sameer Samana Organizations: Wells Fargo Investment Institute Locations: Wells Fargo
But the possible downside of the better forecast: less Fed easing with the possibility that officials at their meeting this week forecast fewer rate cuts in 2024 they did in December. The CNBC Fed Survey respondents include economists, strategists and fund managers. And while the average recession probability is down, about 20% of respondents still say there's an even money chance or greater of a downturn in the next 12 months. "The larger-than-consensus reduction in the federal funds rate in my forecast is contingent on a recession that brings inflation down," said Robert Fry, of Robert Fry Economics. He has a 60% recession probability and sees the Fed slashing rates to 3.6% by year end from the current level of 5.38%.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Tom Williams, John Donaldson, it's, Scott Wren, Robert Fry Organizations: UNITED STATES, Federal, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs Committee, Inc, Getty, CNBC Fed Survey, Haverford Trust Co, Wells, Investment Institute, CNBC Fed, Robert Fry Economics Locations: U.S
Read previewRisk is back in fashion on Wall Street as investors shed their fears and become more adventurous with their cash. Wall Street is betting big on a soft landing, where the Fed succeeds in bringing inflation down without unemployment surging or a recession taking hold. Related storiesSimilarly, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a recent outlook that "risk appetite is poised to grow" this year as recession relief and rate cuts embolden investors. When the music stopsThe outlook for stocks and the economy might seem brighter, but it's worth being at least a little skeptical of the current enthusiasm. "Nobody seems to care about valuations, and now you have Wall Street strategists laying claim that we are in a brand new era," veteran economist David Rosenberg said in a recent note.
Persons: , BII, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg, Jeremy Grantham, there's, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Investors, BlackRock Investment Institute, Nvidia, Grantham, Swissquote Bank Locations: BlackRock
As investors ponder how — and where — to invest in this uncertain climate, CNBC Pro asked market experts where they recommend allocating $100,000. "By investing purely in cash and fixed income, you can already get a decent return," Jia said. And with global central banks cutting rates, fixed income will likely benefit from capital gains as well because of the duration." Within fixed income, Jia likes government bonds from developed countries and investment-grade bonds from "reputable firms," which offer "quality" and "longer-term growth" potential. Investors nearing retirement, for instance, should have a more conservative portfolio mix of 80% in fixed income and 20% in equities, according to Jia.
Persons: Paul Christopher —, Christopher, Kevin Teng, Teng, Morgan Stanley, Rickie Jia, Jia, Group's Teng, Pictet's Jia Organizations: Treasury, Wells Fargo Investment, CNBC Pro, Wrise Wealth Management Singapore, U.S . Federal Reserve, Microsoft, Pictet Wealth Management Locations: Wells Fargo, Asia, East, Europe, U.S
It may seem counterintuitive for Wall Street to reward companies for letting people go. After all, layoffs are usually thought to be a sign that the business isn’t doing so hot. And while a lot of the layoff talk is concentrated in tech, investors were also quite pleased about job cuts at Estée Lauder . Many companies took an aggressive approach to hiring during the pandemic, particularly tech companies whose engagement boomed while everyone was stuck at home. The tech companies developing AI products are the best positioned to try them out.
Persons: Estée Lauder, , Scott Kessler, Goldman Sachs, Sameer Samana, moonshot, Ted Mortonson, Baird, Kessler, ” Mortonson, hasn’t, Emily Stewart Organizations: Bloomberg, Third, Companies, Wells, Investment Institute, Business Locations: Samana
Investors are pricing in a best-case outcome where earnings rise and inflation returns to normal in a continued economic expansion. “It’s a tough needle to thread,” said Steve Sosnick, the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. “And that pretty much pulls forward almost all the returns, in our minds, for 2024.”AdvertisementCrit Thomas, a global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, has the same concern. “And so at 21x earnings, there’s very little margin for error here.”AdvertisementFourth-quarter earnings mostly met measured expectations , as did forward guidance. Clark Bellin, the chief investment officer at Bellwether Wealth, said he’s less worried about valuations broadly and is more interested in seeing which sectors look cheap.
Persons: , , Solita Marcelli, , Sameer Samana, Steve Sosnick, It’s, Steven Wieting, “ We’ve, Crit Thomas, “ I’m, ” Thomas, We’re, Chris Galipeau, ” Galipeau, ” Sosnick, we’ve, Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab, ” Sonders, there’s, Clark Bellin, he’s, ” Bellin, you’re, Stocks, Samana, won’t, Thomas, Wieting, Bellin, “ They’ve, they’re Organizations: Service, Business, UBS Global Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Interactive, Citi Global Wealth’s, Touchstone Investments, Franklin Templeton Institute, Citi Global Wealth, Bellwether Wealth Locations: Wells Fargo, Samana, ” Samana, Galipeau
It may be time to consider adding emerging markets bonds to your fixed-income portfolio. His Vanguard Emerging Markets Bond Fund (VEGBX) is rated five stars by Morningstar. BlackRock also likes emerging markets, specifically external currency debt. Often issued in U.S. dollars, hard currency EM debt is also cushioned from EM currency weakness as EM central banks cut rates," she wrote. He suggests working with an advisor if you want to add EM bonds to your portfolio.
Persons: shying, Daniel Shaykevich, Morningstar, you'd, Shaykevich, Wei Li, Vanguard's Shaykevich, It's Organizations: Vanguard, Emerging Markets Bond Fund, BlackRock, U.S, BlackRock Investment Locations: Treasurys, America, Mexico, Brazil, Saudi Arabia
New York CNN —The S&P 500 closed above the 5,000 level on Friday for the first time as bullish sentiment spreads across Wall Street and investors cheered fresh data showing progress on inflation. The S&P 500 briefly topped 5,000 for the first time intraday on Thursday. It took almost 41 years for the S&P 500 to reach its first major milestone of 1,000, which it hit on February 2, 1998, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. When the S&P 500 sets a new high in January, found Sam Stovall at CFRA Research, it reaches new highs in February about 75% of the time. The S&P 500 is up about 5.4% so far this year.
Persons: Howard Silverblatt, Dow, Sam Stovall, , Scott Wren Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, CFRA Research, Fed, Big Tech, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Wells Fargo Investment Institute Locations: New York, Wells Fargo
Fed meeting: Here's what to expect
  + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed meeting: Here's what to expectSubadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, Paul Christopher, Wells Fargo Investment Institute head of global market strategy, and Joe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss a timeline for Fed rate easing, U.S. economic health, and more.
Persons: Subadra, Paul Christopher, Joe Lavorgna Organizations: Societe Generale, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Nikko Securities America Locations: Wells Fargo
BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, on Monday upgraded its outlook for U.S. stocks to overweight, seeing upward momentum carry on as inflation eases. "So we upgrade broad U.S. stocks — our index level view plus AI theme preference — to overweight on a tactical horizon of six to 12 months." While the firm sees inflation falling near the Fed's 2% target, it expects prices to go up toward 3% next year. "We agree with markets that inflation will fall near 2% this year, helping the upward momentum extend into the year. The firm said wage growth in the U.S. is still running too hot for services inflation to slow enough to keep core inflation near 2%.
Persons: Jean Boivin, BlackRock Organizations: BlackRock, BlackRock Investment Institute, Tech, Gross, Investors, Microsoft Locations: BlackRock, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWells Fargo's Paul Christopher says, there's value in energy and likes these non-tech sectorsPaul Christopher, Wells Fargo Investment Institute head of global investment Strategy and Mimi Duff, Gentrust Managing Director, join 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss opportunities in the market.
Persons: Wells Fargo's Paul Christopher, Paul Christopher, Mimi Duff Organizations: Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Gentrust Locations: Wells Fargo
Goldman Sachs"We expect price increases to be driven by modest earnings growth and well-supported price-to-earnings multiples," wrote Austin Pickle, a strategist at WFII, in a January 16 note. Stucky continued: "I've never seen a re-acceleration in earnings growth — which is what the baseline expectation is for earnings — absent some sort of economic recovery or an acceleration in economic growth. He noted that many factors influence profits, but added that his forward model suggests there's earnings risk ahead. Bianco said he expects flat or mid-single-digit earnings growth for stocks in most sectors. However, he said that during expansions, GDP growth is a poor predictor of earnings growth.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Austin Pickle, Jonathan Golub, Golub, Matt Stucky, Stucky, I've, Brad Klapmeyer, He's, Klapmeyer, Anthony Saglimbene, , Saglimbene, Saglimbene doesn't, David Bianco, Bianco Organizations: Business, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS, Federal Reserve, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Macquarie Asset Management, DWS Group
If you're looking at this year's economic outlook to inform your investing decisions, you may want to rethink that strategy. Investors like Bryant VanCronkhite, a senior portfolio manager at Allspring , agree that the environment is ripe for active management. The days of overpriced equities that benefited from low interest rates will soon hit a brick wall. One option is to take a cue from Wall Street's top analysts — and TipRanks, a financial data firm, has analyzed reams of data to compile useful lists. Below is a set of seven mid-cap stocks that analysts have given "strong buy" ratings with high upside.
Persons: It's, Long, Goldman Sachs, Jean Boivin, Bryant, Organizations: Business, Bank of, BlackRock Investment Institute, Allspring, NYSE, Nasdaq
Investors should focus on defensive stocks ahead of an expected economic slowdown in 2024, according to the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Against this forecast, Cronk added that investors may have to wait until the second half of 2024 before visibility improves and markets meaningfully recover. Wednesday saw stocks climb after two back to back losing sessions for both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500 . "The lack of market breadth (along with our expectation for an economic slowdown) suggests late-cycle dynamics are at play, leading us to maintain our defensive positioning entering 2024," he said. Cronk highlighted health care, industrials and materials as three key market segments that fit his suggested defensive investor focus.
Persons: Darrell Cronk, Cronk, Michael Bloom Organizations: Wells, Investment Institute, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: Wells Fargo
The key catalyst for stocks will likely continue to be the expected trajectory of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. In September, historically the weakest month for stocks, the S&P 500 fell nearly 5%. The S&P 500 gained nearly 9% gain in November, historically a strong month for the index. Overall, December has been the second-best month for the S&P 500, with the index up an average of 1.54% for the month since 1945, according to CFRA. Many other names have languished: The equal-weighted S&P 500, whose performance is not skewed by big tech and growth stocks, is up around 6% in 2023.
Persons: Mike Segar, Santa Claus, Stocks, We've, Sam Stovall, Claus, Kraft Heinz, BofA, Sameer Samana, Dow, Michael Hartnett, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Research, Investors, LPL, BofA Global Research, PayPal Holdings, CVS Health, Kraft, Wells, Investment Institute, Nvidia, Dow Jones, Coinbase Global, Innovation, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Santa, New York
That's quite similar to what investors can get on government bonds, while high-quality corporate bonds yield more nearly 6.5% in the U.S. and U.K., and 4.6% in Europe. Here's what the pros say on how to invest within the fixed income space — cash or bonds — in the next two years and beyond. Schroders' Head of Strategic Research Duncan Lamont also stated his preference for bonds, saying that putting your money in cash means being exposed to interest rate fluctuations. And those rates are higher than cash — at 6.2% for corporate bonds with an average maturity of three years, and 6.5% on high-quality U.S. corporate bonds with an average tenure of 10 years, noted Lamont. "Fixed income is experiencing greater inflows than equities in the US and the same trend relative to cash in Europe.
Persons: Schroders, Luis D, Alvarado, Duncan Lamont, Lamont, Ashish Shah Organizations: Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Fed, CNBC Pro, Strategic, U.S . Federal, Goldman, Management, Goldman Sachs Asset Management Locations: U.S, Europe, Wells Fargo
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe market is telling us the Fed is done hiking rates, things are slowing, says BD8's Barbara DoranBarbara Doran, BD8 Capital Partners CIO, and Scott Wren, Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global market strategist, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: Barbara Doran Barbara Doran, Scott Wren Organizations: BD8 Capital, Fargo Investment Institute Locations: Fargo
Stocks won't bring much joy in 2024, according to Wells Fargo. The bank expects the benchmark S&P 500 to trade within a narrow range the whole year. AdvertisementInvestors shouldn't count on the stocks' stellar run lasting much longer with higher interest rates likely to weigh on the market for all of 2024, according to Wells Fargo. In a research note published Monday, strategists at the bank said they expected the S&P 500 to be trading at between 4,600 and 4,800 points by the end of 2024. Wells Fargo's latest outlook puts it on the more bearish side of Wall Street, with many analysts saying the S&P 500 could have another strong year with the US economy looking likely to avoid a long-predicted recession.
Persons: , Austin Pickle, Wells, Chris Harvey –, they're Organizations: “ Equity, Service, Fargo Investment Institute, Fed, CNBC, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets Locations: Wells Fargo, Fargo, Wall
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